苗湉媛
运城职业技术大学 山西运城 044000
摘要： 气候变化是现今世界上最严重的问题之一。对于马尔代夫而言，其温室气体排放量很低，但受到的气候变化影响却是世界上最严重的。作为岛屿国家，马尔代夫的气候环境条件及其脆弱。首先，马尔代夫是由众多岛屿组成，不同地区的人口密度不同，这一因素导致相关政策较难施行。其次，马尔代夫的国家规模较小，因此在世界上没有强有力的政治话语权。在这些因素的影响下，马尔代夫别无选择，只能适应气候变化的负面影响。
适应气候变化的方法之一就是制定气候政策，并且遵循改善气候变化条件的策略。因此，马尔代夫主要有四项主要的气候政策。虽然已经实现了一些好处，但施行这些气候政策也存在一定的挑战与问题。因此，提高马尔代夫的气候适应性仍然任重道远。
关键词：气候变化，马尔代夫，气候政策，气候脆弱性，气候适应性
Climate change adaptations in the Maldives
Tianyuan Miao
Yuncheng Vocational and Technical University, Yuncheng, Shanxi 044000
Summary：Climate change is one of the most serious problems in the world especially for the Maldives. The Maldives contribute a low-level of greenhouse gas emissions, but it suffers the most serious impacts of climate change in the world. One of the reasons is the environmental condition of the islands is vulnerable. There are several causes of the vulnerability of the Maldives. For example, the altitude of the Maldives is lower that the majority of countries in the world. Also, the Maldives is constituted of a large number of small islands, and the population density is imbalanced in different areas, so it is hard to be managed in the Maldives. Moreover, the Maldives is a small country in the world, so it does not have strong political discourse in the world. Because of these reasons, the Maldives do not have choice but to adapt to the negative effects of climate change.
To adapt to climate change, one of the methods is to set climate policies, and follow the strategies to improve the conditions of climate changes. Thus, there are four main climate policies in the Maldives. While some benefits have been realized, there are also several challenges and problems related to these climate policies. Thus, it is still a long way to improve “adaptation” or “resilience” for the Maldives.
key worlds: climate change, the Maldives, policy, vulnerability, adaptation
Introduction
There are a lot of global warming reports that talk about its effect on the whole world. Also, some people think that global warming means the changes in weather. However, global warming not only means the changes in weather in the long-term; it also means several serious problems like increased frequency of extreme weather. Especially for the island environment, the possible effects seem more serious. For instance, if the temperature still increases, then the warmer oceans will generate more cyclones, and this will cause serious problems for the citizens who live around coastal areas. In addition, the climate environment is especially vulnerable in small islands, because of their confined land area (Tariq et al, 2002).
Maldives is a country which is located in the middle of the Indian Ocean (Stefano & Marcella, 2017). The whole land area is only 300km2, and more seriously, the maximum altitude of Maldives is only 3 meters. Maldives is called “the flattest country on earth” by Khan et al. (2002). In addition, the climate condition is “extremely vulnerable” for Maldives. It is predicted that 85% of Maldives will be undersea by the year 2100 if the environmental conditions continue to be serious. Even worse, Maldives may disappear in the future (Sovacool, 2012a; Tariq et al, 2002).
All of the conditions make the environment of the Maldives more vulnerable during the risks of climate change. For example, the climate change causes the changes of precipitation model, higher sea surface temperature, more and stronger storms, as well as acidification of the ocean. The characteristics of the Maldives islands are clear. The Maldives islands have small size, low altitude, the width is quiet narrow, and the last characteristic is that the coral reefs and atolls are dispersed. Besides, approximately 50 percent citizens are living near these ashore (less than 100 meters from seashore), and 70 percent of significant infrastructure is built near these ashore too. Thus, the Maldives seems vulnerable to climate change (Sovacool, 2012a).
For this essay, I will analyze the vulnerability of the Maldives, through the discussion of the inequality of the Maldives (include the inequality of geography, society, international stage and different industries). After that, I will introduce the main climate policies in the Maldives. At last, I discuss the policies related to the challenges of the climate policies.
The vulnerability of the Maldives
Before I analyze the vulnerability of the climate in the Maldives, I will talk about how we analyze the risks in the Maldives. Stefano and Marcella (2017) divided the risks of the Maldives into three elements. Firstly, the international environmental legislation and planning will influence the evaluation of the risks of the Maldives. Secondly, the national scale of the Maldives is small, so the Maldives do not have power in the world. Thirdly, “vulnerability” of climate in the Maldives is a key element if we talk about the risks (Stefano & Marcella, 2017). Also, there are three key sectors of the regional environment crisis, which are the geopolitics during climate change, the environmental actions in the regional area, and the actions from international organizations and international cooperation (Hommel & Murphy, 2013; Llewellyn, English, & Barnwell, S., 2016).
According to the theories of risk to the Maldives through climate change, I find that the characteristics of the human geography of the Maldives seem important if we want to analyze the vulnerability to climate in the Maldives.
As I mentioned before, the Maldives is located in the Indian Ocean, moreover the Republic of the Maldives consists of1190 small islands, and the altitude of 80 percent of its land is less than 1 meter. The location and the geographicalcharacteristics of the Maldives contribute to the importance of the tourism and the fishing industry for the economy of the Maldives (Tariq et al, 2002; Stefano & Marcella, 2017). In addition, the Maldives has a large population, and the growth rate of the population is almost the highest in the world. Most of citizens are living in Male which is the capital of the Maldives. Also, more than 25 percent people are living in an area which is less than 2 km2 (Karthikheyan, 2010). Thus, Malatesta et al. (2015) call the Maldives a country both with concentration as well as dispersion in spatial terms. For the population distribution, the Maldives is imbalanced for the centre and periphery areas. Additionally, the building of basic infrastructure including airports, waste, as well as energy management systems is concentrated in the capital of the Maldives, so most of their citizen cannot use the basic infrastructures easily. In addition, this human geography also will cause the problem of the gap of wealth in the Maldives (Stefano & Marcella, 2017).
Besides the human geography of the Maldives, Stefano and Marcella (2017) also mentioned that the Maldives is definitely influenced by climate change seriously, and there is a lot of international planning of climate change that talked about the effects of climate change for small islands especially in the Maldives like the Cairo. Small islands like the Maldives islands do not contribute much greenhouse gas emissions to the world. However, the effects of climate change to these small islands are considerable (Stefano & Marcella, 2017). These human geography characteristics of the Maldives shows that there are three things about climate change can threaten the Maldives, which are the location and the geomorphology, the feedback of climate change under international experiences, as well as the media discourse (Arnall & Kothari, 2015; Stefano & Marcella, 2017).
For the case of the Maldives, the economic part is still important. Economically, the land of the Maldives is scarce of soil, and only 10 percent of the land in the Maldives can be used in agricultural industry. In fact, the Maldives relies on the development of tourism, fisheries, as well as agriculture. In addition, the most important one is tourism industry. The World Bank (2010) identified the tourism industry as the lifeblood of the economy in the Maldives. The tourism industry provided around 30 percent of the GDP of the Maldives, as for the direct as well as indirect income of tourism industry provided approximately 80 percent of the GDP of the Maldives, and it fluctuated in the recent years (Karthikheyan, 2010; Sovacool, 2012; Shakeela & Becken, 2014; World Data Atlas, 2016).
The conditions of the economy of the Maldives prove a point of view which says that narrow resource bases are related to the world outside. Thus, it is important to analyze climate change through the perspective of small islands, and this analysis can drive the climate change management in the world, because small islands are an important part in the management of climate change. However, it is unreasonable if we only use a small islands’ perspective to think about the management of climate change. Also, we need to think about climate change from a national as well as an international perspective. In fact, the vulnerability of the climate in the Maldives is already a serious problem in the world (Stefano & Marcella, 2017).
All in all, the characteristics of the geography and polity is inequalities, which include the inequality of the centre areas and peripheries, the inequality between countries (because of the Maldives is a small country, even climate change influence the Maldives seriously, but the Maldives still do not have a lot discourse right in the world)(Stefano & Marcella, 2017).
There is another method to analyze the vulnerability of the Maldives. The National Adaptation Program of Action indicated that there are eight primary sectors that are likely to be affected by climate change in the Maldives, and to analyze these eight primary sectors can help us to think about vulnerability to the climate in the Maldives. As I introduced before, the Maldives is an archipelago located in the Indian Ocean, and the conditions of geography in the Maldives constrain citizens’ lives in the coastal areas. Thus, these eight primary sectors are mainly about coastal protection (Republic of Maldives, 2006; Sovacool, 2012b).
The first sector is land, beach, as well as the residential areas. As I explained before, most human settlements are close to the coastal areas, so all of these houses are facing the risks of the increasing sea level, more and stronger storm, as well as more frequently flood (Sovacool, 2012b).
The second sector is the key infrastructure of the Maldives. This key infrastructure include five airports, over 100 harbors, electricity, hospital, school and other important infrastructure in the Maldives. In general, approximately 70 percent of the key infrastructure was built within 100 meters of the coastline. Thus, if we ignore this condition, then the increasing sea level may submerge most of these key infrastructure, and cause serious consequences (Sovacool, 2012b).
The third sector is tourism, as I mentioned before, tourism industry is the lifeblood of the economy in the Maldives. However, the dependence on the tourism industry enhances the vulnerability of the Maldives. Actually, over 90 percent of the basic resort infrastructures as well as 99 percent of the tourism accommodations are close to the coastline (less than 100 meters). Climate change can influence the tourism industry in several sectors. For example, the resorts are threatened by the increasing sea level, the saltwater is contaminating underground water, the increasing temperature is threatening tropical plants. What’s more, climate change causes ocean acidification in the Maldives, and it threatens the diving operations (Sovacool, 2012b; Karthikheyan, 2010).
The fourth is the fisheries in the Maldives. In addition to tourism, the fishery industry is another pillar of the economy of the Maldives. Around 20 percent of people work for the fishery industry, and skipjack as well as yellow fin tuna is the main production. However, the increasing sea temperature causes the fish shocks to keep far away from the coastal area. In addition, climate change changes the temperatures and humidity of the environment and it influences the phytoplankton and the live bait in the Indian Ocean (Sovacool, 2012b).
The fifth is climate change will do harm to human health. The changing precipitation patterns and more floods bring the water borne or vector borne illness, and all these conditions threaten people’s health, and more seriously, this disease may occasionally cause mortality (Sovacool, 2012b).
For the sixth factor, climate change will influence the water quality, and also climate change may reduce the availability of underground water. Usually, there are three sources of fresh water for the Maldives, which are underground water, collection of rainwater, or desalination. The natural fresh water (underground water and the rainwater) is threatened by the decreasing precipitation, and because of the increasing population, the requirements for fresh water continues to increase (Sovacool, 2012a;Sovacool, 2012b).
Next, the seventh is agriculture and the quality & the quantity of foods. The majority of the crops are fruits, which are watermelons, coconuts as well as papayas. In addition tothese fruits, there are also some cabbages and other plants. The Maldives lacks farms. In addition, most of the land is sand, so the soil quality is poor. Climate change can influence agricultural industry in several ways in the Maldives. Firstly, the increasing sea level may submerge the farms. Moreover, the changes of precipitation pattern and temperature will alter the soil moisture and reduce the fertility of the soil. Secondly, the lack of fresh water will also influence agricultural production. There will not be enough fresh water to irrigate. Last but not least, there may be more and stronger storms, and it will influence the transportation of foods. In general, climate change will cause serious problems to the food security in the Maldives (Karthikheyan, 2010; Sovacool, 2012b; Republic of Maldives, 2006).
The last sector is the biodiversity of the coral reef. Although the Maldives has small land areas, it has a large coral reef system which is the seventh largest in the world. Also the Maldives has two large natural atolls, another 23 natural atolls and 2041 different coral reef homes. Coral reefs can only live within small temperature ranges, if the temperature continues increase, and then the color of coral reefs will be faded. The Maldives have experienced significant “coral bleaching” problems at least seven times during the past three decades. These “coral bleaching” problems will also impact on the development of the tourism industry of the Maldives (Maschinski et al. 2011; Shakeela & Becken, 2014).
From the analysis of the vulnerability of the Maldives, we have identified the negative effects to the Maldives from climate change. The Maldives is one of the small islands which is influenced most seriously by climate change in the world. In addition, I have talked about the economic effects to the Maldives from climate change, and the condition might be worse in the future, because the lifeblood of the economy (tourism industry) in the Maldives has also declined in recent years. Besides, there is another influencing factor for the vulnerability of the Maldives, which is the natural hazards, like tsunami. There was a serious tsunami in 2004, and after this tsunami, the vulnerability of the Maldives seems more serious, and the tsunami damaged the ecology as well as economy in the Maldives (Karthikheyan, 2010). Stefano and Marcella (2017) illustrated that this inequality (small country with serious risks) is the key to talk about the risks of climate change for the Maldives. In addition, to talk about the vulnerability and the adaptation to the climate change in the Maldives, it is necessary to talk about the environmental policies to analyze the effects of the human exploitation to the natural resources (Llewellyn, English, & Barnwell, 2016).
Adaptations to climate change
The United Nation Development Programme noted that the government of the Maldives is lacking “systematic adaptation plans” to adapt to climate change in the year 2010. However, the government of the Maldives has engaged that how to use legislative activities to adapt the effects of climate change during the period from 2003 to 2016. For the government of the Maldives, they think that the sense of setting legislation is significant (Stefano & Marcella, 2017). In addition, during this period, the government of the Maldives enacted three main pieces of legislation to adapt climate change, which called “National Adaptation Plan of Action” in 2008, “Strategic National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation 2010-2020” in 2009, as well as “Maldives Climate Change Policy Framework” in 2015. These policies play an important role in the adaptation to climate change in the Maldives. In addition to these national policies of climate change in the Maldives, there also an international level policy which called the “Integrating Climate Change Risks into Resilient Island Planning in the Maldives” (Sovacool, 2012a; Sovacool, 2012b; Stefano & Marcella, 2017).
National Adaptation Plan of Action
The National Adaptation plan of Action which is called NAPA is one of the main adaptation policies of the government of the Maldives. This environmental policy identifies different aspects to adapt to the effects of climate change in the Maldives. It requires cooperation between different aspects, which are policies, activities of the communities in Maldives, increase citizen’s awareness of the effects of climate change, as well as enhance the local system management. The NAPA also gives us a prospect of the following strategies of the adaptation of climate change in the Maldives in the recent years. In fact, the government of the Maldives aims to combine the evaluation of the negative effects of climate change in the Maldives with the decline of the risks of climate change (or mitigate the negative effects of climate change). Moreover, this policy also requires the government to transfer their aims from “mitigation” to “adaptation” and from “adaptation” to “resilience”. However, it is hard to achieve the goal of “resilience” for the government of the Maldives, because the conditions of climate change are becoming more and more serious, and “resilience” is a long-term strategy for climate change in the Maldives (Stefano & Marcella, 2017).
Strategic National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation 2010-2020
Strategic National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation 2010-2020, which can be simply called SNAP, is another adaptation for climate change in the Maldives. In addition, the SNAP pays more attention to the cooperation of different groups in the society of the Maldives. For the plans of the SNAP, it aims to build the resilience to reduce the risks of climate change. The SNAP encourages the government of the Maldives to treat climate change as the most important problem in the country, and let the communities join the management of climate change in the Maldives (Stefano & Marcella, 2017).
To achieve the goal of the SNAP, the manager of the SNAP defined their strategies as four factors. Firstly, to build better governance and this environment of governance will be good for the management of climate change in the Maldives. Secondly, build more powerful communities. Thirdly, teach communities about technology, knowledge, as well as other things about climate change to make the communities more “resilient”. Fourthly, pay more attention to risk-sensitive areas. The SNAP gives strategies to reduce the risks of climate change in the Maldives, and the contents of the SNAP follows the requirement of the national adaptation of climate change. Especially, the SNAP emphasizes the participation of communities. After two years of the publication of the SNAP, there were some adjustments to the infrastructure in communities to adapt the climate change. Thus, there were some achievements of the SNAP (Stefano & Marcella, 2017).
Maldives Climate Change Policy Framework
Maldives Climate Change Policy Framework is to enhance the achievement of the SNAP, and the Maldives Climate Change Policy Framework was put forward by the Ministry of Environment and Energy in 2015. The Maldives Climate Change Policy Framework also points that climate change influence different industries in the Maldives, so it is a cross-cutting development problem. Not only the economical problems as well as social problems can beinfluenced by climate change. Also climate change will influence the stability of political areas of the Maldives, especially the policies of the tourism industry. Thus, climate change is not only an environmental and economic problem, but also a political problem. A climate change policy must balance the interests of different groups like stakeholders, citizens and consumers. The managers of the Ministry of Environment and Energy emphasized climate change is the most important challenge for the development of small islands. All of the environmental conditions (especially geography and climate) exacerbate the vulnerability of the Maldives. Also, the Ministry of Environment and Energy emphasized, not only the nation will be influenced by climate change, but also every communities and every people (Stefano & Marcella, 2017).
Integrating Climate Change Risks into Resilient Island Planning in the Maldives
The government of the Maldives starts Integrating Climate Change Risks into Resilient Island Planning in the Maldives “ICCR” in 2010. It will spend 9.3 million dollars, andthis policy funded by the United Nations Development Program, the Global Environment Facility, as well as the government of the Maldives. Also, the ICCR has several parts. There will be a climate information system to collect and analyze climate data. This climate information system will enhance the ability to deal with the risks of climate change, through risk analysis, mitigate the hazards of climate change as well as change land use plans in the Maldives. In addition, it also requires more training for government officials. In all, the strategies of the ICCR include three parts, which are using the “soft” infrastructure to improve physical resilience, strengthen training of the policymakers and build better government, as well as increase the participation of communities to increase community resilience (Sovacool, 2012b).
Discussion
The Maldives is a vulnerable country, and it does not have much responsibility for the more and more serious climate change; but the Maldives is influenced by climate change significantly. Thus, the Maldives is an important committed actor to achieve the goal of low-emissions development in the future. However, the Maldives do not have a strong geopolitical influence in the world. So even though the Maldives suffers the negative effects of climate change seriously, they cannot change the conditions. The only way for the Maldives is to adapt to the consequences of climate change. For the Maldives, it is a problem of national survival. If the Maldives cannot adapt to climate change, it will disappear in the future (Sovacool, 2012b; Stefano & Marcella, 2017). Thus, the government of the Maldives set several policies to adapt to climate change, and international organizations also give some support to the Maldives to adapt climate change.
When we look at the different climate policies, we can easily find that they all encourage the participation of the communities and citizens. Also, it is the most difficult part of the implementation of the climate policies. Even through, the government of the Maldives has also finished some strategies of climate policies in recent years, and there are several consequences of these policies. The “soft” protection has grown in the Maldives. The recent strategy to reduce vulnerability is to build the “hard” infrastructure, which means to put sand-cement bags, armor rocks or other similar things around the coastal areas. This strategy can definitely protect the coastlines, but this is a kind of short-term strategy. Thus, we need the “soft” protection, which means to plant mangroves or other coastal protection vegetation around the coastline. These “soft” infrastructures are cheaper and safer than “hard” infrastructures. In addition, to plant the “soft” infrastructure is a long-term strategy. There is another strategy which is ongoing in the Maldives, which is to build artificial islands. Hulhumalé Island is one of the artificial islands in the Maldives, and it is the closest artificial island to the capital of the Maldives. The government of the Maldives plans to settle at least 100,000 people on Hulhumalé Island, and there are already 20,000 residents in Hulhumalé Island. In addition, most of the citizens in Hulhumalé Island are climate refugees (Sovacool, 2012a; Sovacool, 2012b; Stefano & Marcella, 2017). These are the main ongoing strategies to increase the adaptation to climate change in the Maldives. However, there are also a lot of resistance to the strategies of climate policies.
Through the illustration of the consequences of climate policies, we know that the government of the Maldives has succeeded in some parts of climate policies. However, there are still some problems with these climate policies. Going back to the main body of each policy, we know that the policy is aimed to adapt to climate change, and then increase resilience of the Maldives to the climate change. Nevertheless, most of the strategies cannot achieve the goal of resilience, especially the strategy of building artificial islands. In my opinion, it is the very last strategy of the Maldives, but the government of the Maldives treat this strategy as one of the most important strategies to adapt climate change. As far as I can see, the government of the Maldives does not have confidence to stop or reduce the negative effects by the climate change. Also, these climate policies do not have any strategies to push cooperation with other countries. As I explained before, the Maldives is a small country. Its contribution to greenhouse gases is lower than most of the countries in the world; but the Maldives will suffer the most serious consequences of climate change compared with other countries. Thus, reducing the negative effects of climate change needs the help of other countries. In my opinion, the government of the Maldives can add some strategies which enhance cooperation with other powerful countries.
Even if there are some problems with the current climate policies, we still can say these policies are not bad, especially we can see several consequences of these climate policies. Now, I would like to talk about the challenges when the government of the Maldives tries to operate these climate policies.
The most important challenge to implementing the climate policies is the geography of the Maldives. As I explained at the beginning of the essay, the characteristic of geography of the Maldives is inequality. Thus, it is hard to build the basic adaptation infrastructure in some islands which are far away from the central Maldives. This condition requires the government of the Maldives to use different strategies in different place, rather than a “one-size-fits-all” strategy. In addition, these require a more powerful reaction by the government in the Maldives to solve different problems (Sovacool, 2012a; Sovacool, 2012b). It is a challenge that there is no successful case about how to adapt to climate change in a country which is similar to the Maldives. For the policymakers of climate policies in the Maldives, they must find strategies suitable to the conditions of their countries or each kind of island (Sovacool, 2012b). Even through, the conditions of climate change are more and more serious, so the Maldives is facing to more extreme problems.
Poverty is a serious problem for the Maldives. Impoverished people tend to use “hard” adaptation but not plant “soft” infrastructures, because they can reap the benefit of short-term strategy directly. Also, the gap in wealth between rural and urban people is big, and to operate climate policies is harder in rural areas. This will reduce the expected effects of climate policies (Sovacool, 2012b). Moreover, the Maldives is a poor country, and people do not have a strong purchasing power to support the climate policies. For the citizens, they are more focusing on their normal life, so they do not have a strong motivation to participate in climate change policies. (Sovacool, 2012b).
The last challenge is that the government of the Maldives is lacking attention to the negative effects of climate change.There are too many problems to be solved by the government of the Maldives, so they may forget the climate policies and tend to solve other problems. For the government of the Maldives, they are lack of money, so they may focus on projects that can bring more income to their country. Beyond the funding problems, the social problems will also distract attention from climate policies. There are several social problems in the Maldives, for example, drugs, poverty, as well as the decreasing number of tourists. For the government of the Maldives, all of the social problems seem more urgent and easily controlled compared with climate change(Sovacool, 2012b).
Conclusion
The Maldives is a special country when we talk about the management of climate change in the world. This country does not contribute so much greenhouse gases, but faces almost the most serious consequences of climate change. There are many reasons for this condition. For example, the Maldives is located in a low altitude land and the imbalance of the population density, all of the conditions make the Maldives more vulnerable to climate change. Thus, we call the Maldives a “vulnerable country”. To reduce the negative effects of climate change, the government set a series of policies and tries to adapt climate change. Through these climate policies, the Maldives has increased its “adaptation” of climate change. However, there is still a long way to achieve the goals of these climate policies, and increase the “resilience” of the Maldives.
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作者简介： 苗湉媛（1994-），山西省侯马市人，硕士，助教，研究方向：旅游、户外旅游、气候变化。